What does the 2007 data hold for the future?

Is my e-commerce revenue growth keeping pace or falling behind the industry trend?

How do Rush Order clients stay ahead of the pace?

Is "Cyber Monday" fact or fiction?

An Article Courtesy of Rush Order, Inc.

Trends and Forecasts

While national news headlines were plagued with sluggish economic data during and after the holidays, the news was equally frustrating for the online retail industry. This article discusses the recent trends in online holiday shopping and hints at the methods Rush Order is using to “recession-proof” its clients.

In forecasting several of the negative trends reported, Rush Order proactively tested a number of new order capture and sales channel tools this past holiday season.

Of the few clients we tested these tools with, we achieved significant results that helped us achieve the opposite of the negative trends in the headlines. In fact, we will expand and implement these tools across our entire client roster in the near future. Stay tuned for additional details in articles later this year as the 2008 holiday season approaches.

First, here is the good news regarding the 2007 holidays that made headlines… Total revenue collected by online retailers during the months of November and December in 2007 hit an all time high of $29.2 billion. This figure represents an increase of nearly19% over the 2006 holiday season.

So, what is the bad news? Simply put, growth in online sales is slowing. While 19% growth this year may look impressive at face value, it is part of an ongoing and perhaps worrisome slowdown in the industry’s holiday sales.

Year over year holiday season online sales:

Year	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Sales (in billions) (Nov. 1st – Dec. 31st)	$12.3	$15.8	$19.6	$24.6	$29.2
Increase over previous year		28.5%	24.1%	25.5%	18.7%

There are plenty of macroeconomic pressures behind this trend that would be an excellent topic for a college thesis, as opposed to this short email. In a few words, we know 20% to 30% annual growth in industry wide holiday sales was simply not sustainable forever.

This infers that the online retail industry, both for manufacturers and resellers, will become increasingly competitive in the future, especially during the holiday season. Many merchants will fight for a smaller amount of total industry growth.

In looking at the data in this ominous light, it is easy to imagine a future where the online retail landscape is dominated by a few major players, much like what has happened to brick and mortar retail over the last couple decades. Of course, we have all heard the story of the corner grocery store displaced by the new Super Wal-Mart.

However, online retail is inherently different than this brick and mortar model for a number of reasons. Most notably, the web provides lower barriers to entry and increasing opportunities for upward mobility.

Long term growth is certainly achievable for those merchants capable of delivering a superior customer proposition in terms of product leadership, customer service, and operational efficiency. The two latter propositions are a source of constant focus and development in the tools Rush Order provides for its clients. As such, we are working diligently to ensure that our clients do not fall victim to this flattening industry growth.

By running the right promotions and building the right order capture tools, it is certainly possible to continue our aggressive growth in online sales, despite sluggish national trends. For hints and ideas regarding how Rush Order is accomplishing this, please do not hesitate to contact us. And, as mentioned, stay tuned for future articles.

2007 Holiday Order Volume Data

• Cyber Monday – Fact or Fiction?
• Week by Week Volume Comparison

For years, we have wondered whether or not "Cyber Monday" is a real phenomenon. Is it actually the equivalent of the infamous "Black Friday"? We finally set out to find hard answers on this topic and discovered some interesting data compiled by comScore, Inc.

The following table lists the top 10 online spending days of the 2007 holiday season. This data excludes auction and travel related websites.

Source: comScore, Inc.
Rank	Day	Total Revenue ($ Millions)
1	Monday, December 10 ("Green Monday")	$881
2	Tuesday, December 11	$819
3	Thursday, December 6	$803
4	Wednesday, December 5	$798
5	Tuesday, December 4	$776
6	Wednesday, December 12	$754
7	Monday, December 3	$753
8	Friday, December 7	$734
9	Monday, November 26 ("Cyber Monday")	$733
10	Thursday, November 29	$733

Yes, "Cyber Monday" is ranked 9th on the list. Although this is not a bad showing, it is nearly $150 million off the top ranked day... "Green Monday".

What is Green Monday? eBay is credited with bestowing this name on the second Monday in December on which it claims the heaviest volume of online holiday purchases are made. This holiday season, Green Monday certainly earned its designation.

So, to set the record straight, Green Monday is the online equivalent (or at least the younger sibling) of Black Friday. Contrary to popular belief, "Cyber Monday" is more accurately described as the first newsworthy spike in online holiday sales.

This data is echoed by Rush Order's experience. As you can see in the graph below, our clients' sales (in terms of dollars transacted) closely matched the general movement in the industry. This graph maps weekly sales with data points plotted in terms of the date the week ended. Both lines peak during the week that included Green Monday, December 10th. In fact, Green Monday was at the top of our list, just as it was for the national figures.

Does this data infer that you should be running "Green Monday" promotions later this year? Perhaps... But you may have to wait for our future article on the topic.

In the meantime, the Rush Order team wishes you a happy and successful 2008. Please feel free to contact us anytime with questions, feedback, and anything that comes to mind.

In addition, please remember to visit the remainder of our website and browse additional order management articles.